预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

王菊翠  曹明明  仵彦卿 《干旱区地理》2006,29(1):35-41

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。  相似文献   

Holocene record of productivity in the NW Iberian continental shelf     

V. Alves Martins  C. Patinha  E. Ferreira da Silva  J.-M. Jouanneau  O. Weber  F. Rocha   《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2006,88(1-3):408

A multiproxy approach (textural characteristics, heavy metal concentrations and benthic foraminifera data) was adopted to study the OMEX core KSGX 40, collected at the Galicia Mud Deposit (NW Iberian outer continental shelf) and recording the last ca. 4.8 ka cal BP. Geochemical profiles of Fe, Mn, Zn, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Al and Ca show significant temporal variations. Benthic foraminifera productivity proxy suggests that the recorded muddy events were contemporaneous of a higher C_org flux to the marine benthic environment. The higher flux of organic matter, following a long-term intensification of the upwelling and coinciding with a finer sedimentation, led to depressed levels of oxygen beneath the water-sediments interface and to early diagenetic processes of several redox-sensitive elements.  相似文献   

A multi-method approach to study the stability of natural slopes and landslide susceptibility mapping   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

M. Fall  R. Azzam  C. Noubactep 《Engineering Geology》2006,82(4):241-263

In this paper, a multi-method approach for the assessment of the stability of natural slopes and landslide hazard mapping applied to the Dakar coastal region is presented. This approach is based on the effective combination of geotechnical field and laboratory works, of GIS, and of mechanical (deterministic and numerical) stability analysis. By using this approach, valuable results were gained regarding instability factors, landslide kinematics, simulation of slope failure and coastal erosion. This led to a thorough assessment and strong reduction in the subjectivity of the slope stability and hazard assessment and to the development of an objective landslide danger map of the SW coast of Dakar. Analysis of the results shows that the slides were influenced by the geotechnical properties of the soil, the weathering, the hydrogeological situation, and the erosion by waves. The landslide susceptibility assessment based on this methodological approach has allowed for an appropriate and adequate consideration of the multiple factors affecting the stability and the optimization of planning and investment for land development in the city.  相似文献   

Break out resistance of inclined anchors in sand     

Shubhra Goel  Shalini  Nihar Ranjan Patra 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2006,24(6):1511-1525

Inclined anchors are widely used in a variety of civil engineering problems to resist oblique loads, most relevant being in transmission towers and in rocks and dams for structural strengthening. In the present study, the breakout resistance of the inclined anchors in sand has been worked out using limit equilibrium approach. The breakout resistance has been calculated for different soil friction angles with varying relative depth ratio and anchor inclination. The break out factor increases continuously with the inclination of the anchor. A comparison of predicted values of break out resistance of anchors by the proposed analysis with the experimental values as reported by the other researchers showed reasonably good agreement.  相似文献   

湖北省巴东县黄土坡滑坡深部变形防治方案探讨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

江鸿彬 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2005,16(1):53-56,60

文章根据几年来从事黄土坡滑坡区的勘查、可研及现场工程管理的认识，从滑坡分布特征、物质构成、稳定研究、变形特征等方面对滑坡进行研究。针对该滑坡厚度巨大，滑体强度高，近期深部变形较明显的实情，作者以库仑定律为基础，提出采用岩土加固治理滑坡区深部滑移的初步治理方案。  相似文献   

离散裂隙渗流方法与裂隙化渗透介质建模   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

王明玉  陈劲松等 《地球科学》2002,27(1):90-96

流体渗流模拟的连续介质方法通常适用于多孔地质体，并不一定适用于裂隙岩体，由于裂隙分布及其特征与孔隙差异较大。若流体渗流主要受裂隙的控制，对于一定尺寸的裂隙岩体，多孔介质假设则较难刻划裂隙岩体的渗流特征。离散裂隙渗流方法不但可直接用于模拟裂隙岩体非均质性和各向异性等渗流特征，而且可用其确定所研究的裂隙岩体典型单元体及其水力传导（渗透）张量大小。主要讨论了以下问题：（1）饱和裂隙介质中一般的离散流体渗流模拟；（2）裂隙岩体中的REV（典型单元体）及其水力传导（渗透）张量的确定；（3）利用离散裂隙网络流体渗流模型研究裂隙方向几何参数对水力传导系数和REV的影响；（4）在二维和三维离散裂隙流体渗流模型中对区域大裂隙和局部小裂隙的处理方法。调查结果显示离散裂隙流体渗流数学模型可用来评价不同尺度上的裂隙岩体的水力特征，以及裂隙方向对裂隙化岩体的水力特征有着不可忽视的影响。同时，局部小裂隙、区域大裂隙应当区别对待，以便据其所起的作用及水力特征，建立裂隙化岩体相应的流体渗流模型。  相似文献   

Seismic Hazard for Selected Sites in Greece: A Bayesian Estimate of Seismic Peak Ground Acceleration   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

A. A. Lyubushin  T. M. Tsapanos  V. F. Pisarenko  G. Ch. Koravos 《Natural Hazards》2002,25(1):83-98

A procedure for estimating maximum values of seismic peak ground accelerationat the examined site and quantiles of its probabilistic distribution in a future timeinterval of a given length is considered. The input information for the method areseismic catalog and regression relation between peak seismic acceleration at a givenpoint and magnitude and distance from the site to epicenter (seismic attenuation law).The method is based on Bayesian approach, which simply accounts for influenceof uncertainties of seismic acceleration values. The main assumptions for the method are Poissonian character of seismic events flow and distribution law of Gutenberg-Richter's type. The method is applied to seismic hazard estimation in six selected sitesin Greece.  相似文献   

Spatial variation of seismic motion induced by propagation of body waves     

D. Zendagui  M. K. Berrah 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2002,22(9-12):805-811

Spatial variation of earthquake ground motion is an important phenomenon that cannot be ignored in the design and safety of strategic structures. Several models have been developed to describe this variation using statistical, mathematical or physical approaches. The latter approach is not specific to an event. A recent contribution, which uses such an approach and called complete stochastic deamplification approach (CSDA), was developed [1]. The aim of this paper is to analyze the spatial variation of earthquake motion induced by the propagation of body waves using the CSDA. Coherency functions are evaluated for the cases of SH–SV–P waves propagating through stratified soil. Results obtained show that the variation of the coherency function is not the same for vertical and horizontal components and that the motion is more coherent at depth than at the free surface. In fact, we found that the rate of decrease with frequency and distance is not the same if P–SV waves propagate through stratified soil.  相似文献   

A Procedure for Determining the Reaction Curve of Shotcrete Lining Considering Transient Conditions   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

P. P. Oreste 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2003,36(3):209-236

Summary The mechanical behaviour of a shotcrete lining is analysed in this paper using the convergence-confinement approach. A calculation procedure is presented which is able to provide the reaction curve of a lining with increasing stiffness, by taking into account the variability due to time of the shotcrete stiffness and strength, as well as the face advancement rate. The proposed procedure is also able to provide the change of the safety factor of the lining in time. This results to be a very useful tool for understanding the behaviour of this widely used support and for assigning its thickness to guarantee stability (also in transient conditions), with a known safety factor, during tunnel excavation. Received May 25, 2001; accepted July 18, 2002; Published online January 21, 2003 Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Prof. S. Pelizza and Dr. S. Xu for the help given during the preparation of this paper. The help of the Editor G. Barla is also acknowledged. Authors' address: Dr. P. P. Oreste, Department of Earth Resources and Land, Politecnics di Torino, corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 1-10129 Torino, Italy; e-mail: oreste@polito.it  相似文献   

A comparison of three image-object methods for the multiscale analysis of landscape structure   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Geoffrey J. Hay  Thomas Blaschke  Danielle J. Marceau  Andr Bouchard 《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2003,57(5-6):327

Within the conceptual framework of Complex Systems, we discuss the importance and challenges in extracting and linking multiscale objects from high-resolution remote sensing imagery to improve the monitoring, modeling and management of complex landscapes. In particular, we emphasize that remote sensing data are a particular case of the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) and describe how image-objects provide a way to reduce this problem. We then hypothesize that multiscale analysis should be guided by the intrinsic scale of the dominant landscape objects composing a scene and describe three different multiscale image-processing techniques with the potential to achieve this. Each of these techniques, i.e., Fractal Net Evolution Approach (FNEA), Linear Scale-Space and Blob-Feature Detection (SS), and Multiscale Object-Specific Analysis (MOSA), facilitates the multiscale pattern analysis, exploration and hierarchical linking of image-objects based on methods that derive spatially explicit multiscale contextual information from a single resolution of remote sensing imagery. We then outline the weaknesses and strengths of each technique and provide strategies for their improvement.  相似文献